Date updated: Monday 1st July 2024
As the election looms large, and all the parties have now published their manifestos, I thought it would be timely to look ahead at what may be in store for the education sector once the new government is formed. In keeping with the prevailing trend over recent elections, the manifesto documents are typically light touch, but they do contain some concrete proposals and some hints at what may be in store. With odds currently favouring a Labour majority, particular attention is on the Labour Manifesto.
This overview is a very personal view and does not seek to reflect the full detail of the all the manifestos, which can be read online via our election hub. There, you will also find our manifesto comparisons and some commentary on how key proposals could affect the sector. I would also like to mention the work undertaken by the Education Policy Institute in their insightful and full analysis, which can be found here.
The Labour manifesto is less detailed and shorter than the 2019 manifesto. The previous manifesto was more radical in its reach, and the 2024 document (aside from the headline grabbing policy on VAT for private school fees) is much more toned down and has a more “business as usual” feel to it, while hoping to champion vote winning policies (such as addressing specialist teacher skill shortages).
The dual school system of maintained vs academy schools is not addressed as it was in 2019, and there are glimpses of future policy on further MAT regulation (such as the introduction of Ofsted inspections for academy trusts) and the reform of Ofsted.
There is no planned systemic change, the key issue of school funding levels is not addressed in any detail. With Labour policy having been decidedly cool on academies in the past, it is no surprise to see Labour pushing a more powerful and assertive role for local authorities in the school system (especially in the area of pupil place planning and admissions), and this is likely to restrict the greater autonomy which academy trusts currently enjoy.
The key concerns we hear from schools relate to levels of school funding and the growing crisis in SEND provision, with both mainstream and special schools creaking under the pressure of ever greater burdens upon them.
With both the main parties committed to tight fiscal control, it is no surprise that neither party is offering any commitment to increase funding. The Conservative approach – to promise to hold per pupil funding levels in real terms – is a little unclear in its impact at a time when there are falling rolls and a significant decline in births affecting primary schools. Labour is largely silent on the issue, offering no promises on increased funding, and it does not address the crisis in teacher pay.
There is no repeat for Labour of previous political promises to boost education funding, and this presents a concern for the schools sector. The Labour policies in the manifesto are generally light touch, and the key policy on adding VAT to private schools does not explain the impact this will have on demand and availability of school places in the areas served by private schools. For the special schools feeling the pinch of current demands, this very important issue is not addressed.
The Liberal Democrats offer a greater range of more specific proposals, notably in the areas where the main parties fear to tread, and tackle SEN and the teacher crisis with regard to pay head on. Many of their policies share the theme and sentiment of the Labour manifesto, but with some bolder (and more costly) proposals. With a different approach to fiscal policy, the Liberal Democrats appear to offer the greater commitment to increasing spending on education, although no details are provided.
Across the further education sector, the tone of the proposals is much the same. The rebadging of colleges by Labour provides no details of what that will actually mean, and overall on vocational education, while there is some tinkering, there are no major proposals to catch the eye.
In this 2024 election, education is not being given the prominence it has enjoyed in some previous elections. It is to be hoped that whoever forms the next government will listen to education sector leaders, hear their concerns and address them. Additionally, a cross party consensus would also be welcome to tackle the longstanding and persistent problem of educational inequality which continues to be a key feature of our education system. We wait in hope.